Commonly, colleges and universities use predicted grades to understand the applicant’s potential. The importance of predicted grades lies in understanding your potential and goal setting. This guide answers the questions of what are predicted GCSE grades and how they are determined:
- In-class tests
- Class performance
- Attitude toward studies
- Ability to cope with revision and exam stress
- Time management skills
- Motivation
- Teachers use their experience with past students who had similar performances.
GCSE Grades and Predicted Grades
During Key Stage 4, students are taught all they need to know for GCSE exams. At the end of year 10, students sit for the subject exams known as the GCSE exams. After students complete their GCSE exams, they can expect the exam results within a couple of months (depending on the exam board and type of GCSE exam). These are your GCSE results and are graded by a numerical system from 9 to 1, with nine being the highest.
Achieving strong GCSE grades opens doors to many academic possibilities for students. Higher education institutes such as colleges and universities often use GCSE results as a critical factor in their admissions process.
The numerical GCSE grading system (9-1) was introduced in 2017 in England to differentiate student achievement more precisely. The first subjects to be graded by numbers were English and Maths. Read more on GCSE Point Score: A Comprehensive Guide.
What Are Predicted GCSE Grades
A predicted or forecast grade is a school’s estimate of a student’s likely GCSE grade based on their current performance and attitude. Predicted grades help students make informed decisions about their future, such as applying to universities or choosing sixth-form courses.
Predicted grades are expected to be as helpful as possible in determining the most likely outcomes of a student’s learning.
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Predicted grades are just what the school thinks students are likely to get. There is no official way of predicting a GCSE grade. |
What Are GCSE Grade Boundaries?
Senior examiners set the grade boundaries each year by comparing the marked papers from the current and previous years. These boundaries determine the minimum mark for each grade, for instance, the minimum mark for receiving 6 GCSE maths. The most important factor in setting grade boundaries is the difficulty of paper. Let’s take a look at the table below:
| Grade Bounries vs. Predicted Grades | ||
| Feature | Grade Boundaries | Predicted Grades |
| Who sets them? | Exam board (after exams) | Various sources (before exams) |
| Purpose | Determine final GCSE grade | Estimate potential performance |
| Accuracy | Official and final | Can be inaccurate |
How Predicted Grades Are Determined
Predicted grades are based on a student’s current performance and attitude and their potential for improvement. Schools, primarily teachers, determine these grades.
Teachers determine the grades based on your attitude, performance and motivation. They also rely on their past experience with similar students.
Are Predicted GCSE Grades Accurate
According to a statistics report in 2014 by Cambridge Assessment, the predicted grades were accurate at 43.56%. The table below is based on the report:
| Overall Accuracy of Predicted Grades | |
| Accurate | 43.56% |
| Optimistic | 42.42% |
| Pessimistic | 14.02% |
Read More: Bad GCSE Grades
Challenges and Limitations of Predicting Grades
Predicted grades can be influenced by attendance, effort, and academic level. Factors such as teacher bias and a lack of standardised assessment are also possible. The grades can also be affected by the school’s or college’s internal processes and professional judgment. Below are some of the factors that can make predicted grades less reliable:
- Grade Boundary Fluctuations: Exam boards set grade boundaries based on student performance each year. These boundaries are not fixed and can shift slightly, meaning a predicted grade might not translate directly to the final result.
- Subjectivity in Marking: Examiners mark some GCSE subjects subjectively. This can lead to slight variations in awarded grades, even for students with similar answer scripts (English literature and essay writing, for instance).
- External Factors: External pressures like family situations or exam anxiety can influence a student’s performance on the day, impacting their final grade even if their predicted grade was accurate.
Impact of Predicted GCSE Grades
As mentioned above, predicted grades can influence further education and career paths. Here’s how:
- University Admissions: Predicted grades play a pivotal role in the admissions process. Universities use them as a primary indicator of students’ potential to succeed in their chosen program.
- Minimum Requirements: Some programs have minimum predicted grade thresholds for applying.
- Offer Making: Universities consider predicted grades alongside other application materials like personal statements, interviews and references when deciding on offers.
- Scholarship and Funding Decisions: Certain scholarships and funding opportunities may have predicted grade requirements.
- Future Career Opportunities: The impact of predicted grades on future career opportunities cannot be overstated. Attending a desired university can open doors to specific career paths. Strong predicted grades can lead to offers from better universities, potentially enhancing future job prospects.
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Universities and colleges are only likely to consider the predicted grades received as part of the UCAS application. |
Understanding the grading system helps students set realistic goals regarding their desired achievements. Read more on Your Ultimate Guide to GCSE Test Results.
Recent Changes Due to the Pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted traditional exam procedures, leading to changes in the approach to predicted grades. Many exams were cancelled, forcing a reliance solely on predicted grades for admissions. Some educational bodies implemented standardisation techniques to ensure fairness in predicted grades across different schools. Also, universities considered alternative assessments like coursework and mock exams to supplement predicted grades.
Read More: How to get good grades in GCSE
How to Handle Predicted Grades? Advice for Students
While predicted grades are valuable tools, they can be discouraging or unmotivating for some students. Keep in mind that your final GCSE results are of greater importance. Focus on using predicted grades as a motivator to achieve your best in the final exams. Here are helpful tips:
- Maintain academic solid performance: Consistent good grades throughout the program strengthen the credibility of predicted grades.
- Don’t get discharged or reckless: If your predicted grades are lower than expected, don’t lose motivation and keep up the excellent work. Conversely, keep your confidence in high predicted grades from getting you reckless.
- Communicate effectively with teachers: Discuss academic progress and clarify any uncertainties regarding predicted grades.
- Research university admissions policies: Understand how universities weigh predicted grades alongside other application components.
- Develop a realistic list of universities: Aim for a mix of universities with varying predicted grade requirements.
- Focus on self-care: Predicted grades can be stressful. Practice relaxation techniques and maintain a healthy work-life balance.
Ask for Help from a GCSE Tutor
GCSEs are gateways to future higher education, but revising for GCSE exams can be stressful and time-consuming. Expert help from subject teachers and online tutors can help students succeed. Online tutoring allows students to receive personalised lessons based on their learning style. With a high success rate, Ostado GCSE tutors help all students around the UK achieve academic excellence.
Predicted GCSE Grades FAQ
- How accurately are predicted GCSE grades?Predicted grades are just what the school thinks students are likely to get. There is no official way of predicting a GCSE grade.
- What are the predicted grade boundaries for GCSE 2024?Since grade boundaries are set after the exams, predicting them is impossible now. However, they will likely be similar to 2023.
- Are predicted grades usually higher?According to research, predicted grades tend to be slightly higher.